Australian Open Predictions: Men's Draw

Quarters

(1) Nadal vs. (5) del Potro

Up to this point, Nadal will likely have had to beat Tomic, Monfils and Hewitt/Nishikori - a much tougher path to the quarters than he would have liked. Even though he ran through the 2013 hard court season and won the U.S. Open, I’m still not confident in Nadal’s form on the surface. He had a few indifferent losses to end the year, one being a straight set loss to the Argentine in Shanghai, and so I think he might be a bit vulnerable in this round. Couple that with del Potro’s ability to overpower Nadal and there is every chance of an upset. 

As much as it pains me to write this, I see del Potro moving through to the semis. Perhaps I’m overcompensating for my Nadal bias in picking against him, but so much of his game is predicated on confidence. Yes, his mental prowess is the stuff of legend, but he’s also susceptible to external factors upsetting his flow. Though he won in Dubai to start the year, he was challenged in just about every round - which leads me to believe he’s not at his most confident right now. I hope I’m wrong, but my gut says a win in Australia will be too tough an ask, especially with the draw he’s been handed.

Winner: Juan Martin del Potro

(4) Murray vs. (10) Tsonga

Most would probably expect/hope to see Federer play Murray at this stage. I would too, but I just don’t trust Federer to string together this many quality matches. He may well beat Tsonga, or not have to play him. But, should the two meet, the Frenchman is exactly the type of player who can give Roger heaps of trouble. I’d love to see another edition of the storied Nadal-Federer rivalry, but I don’t see either of them making it that far. 

As for Murray vs. Tsonga, I imagine Murray will have played himself into sufficient form by the quarters to get the job done. He’s an elite player and it would be foolhardy to bet against him based solely on not being able to play his way back into fighting shape. 

Winner: Andy Murray

(7) Berdych vs. (3) Ferrer

Many have forecast gloom and doom for the world #3, claiming his best days are behind him - I’m not buying it. Ferrer has built his entire career on being the underdog and proving people wrong. Moreover, the conditions in Melbourne should suit his style of grinding out matches while his opponents wilt under the extreme heat. His fitness is his best asset and I expect the familiarity of having success here before to serve him well on his way to the semis.

Winner: David Ferrer

(8) Wawrinka vs. (2) Djokovic

These two played epic matches at the Australian and U.S. Opens last year, with Novak taking both in 5 sets. Perhaps Stan will be able to build on a breakthrough 2013 and make that next step into the upper echelon, but it’s more likely that Djokovic will find a way to make his 15th consecutive Slam semifinal. He’s simply too good on this surface not to. In search of his 5th Australian Open crown, and on the back of a blazing indoor season to end 2013, momentum is certainly on his side. 

Winner: Novak Djokovic

Semis

(5) del Potro vs. (4) Murray

Whether it’s Nadal or del Petro as his opponent here, I see the end of the road for Murray. If Rafa makes it, then it will be only Djokovic who can stop him from capturing a second career Grand Slam. Juan Martin and Andy have played only once in the last four years (a win for JMDP at Indian Wells last year), and so there isn’t a whole lot to go by based on H2H match-ups. So, it’s a matter of form and the fact that the Argentine seems to have recaptured his mojo after battling injuries. Expect del Potro to power his way to a first Aussie final.

Winner: Juan Martin del Potro

(3) Ferrer vs. (2) Djokovic

The harsh reality for Ferrer is that, save for endurance, Djokovic does everything better by a significant margin. What’s more is that the Spaniard can’t rely on his fitness in this contest, as Nole neutralizes Ferrer’s greatest asset with his own set of tireless wheels. Ferrer will be lucky to take a set in this one.

Winner: Novak Djokovic

Final

(5) del Potro vs. (2) Djokovic

Though I’d love to see another Nadal-Ddjokovic final, this match-up might be the biggest test for Djokovic in Australia. Their last four matches have gone the distance, including that beast of a semifinal at Wimbledon last year. Unless del Potro wilts under the unrelenting heat, I expect another see-saw contest.

Ultimately, though, Novak Djokovic is the king of the Australian hard court. It will take a titanic effort for anybody to beat him this year.

Champion: Novak Djokovic