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In a world where Roberta Vinci can defeat Serena Williams in the semifinals of the U.S. Open to halt a Calendar Slam bid, I've learned my lesson about making predictions. Accordingly, this 2016 Australian Open preview will not try to name the winners, but rather assess the state of the top 8 seeds' chances on both the ATP and WTA tours.
Men's Seeds 1. Novak Djokovic The world #1 and defending champion had a season for the ages in 2015. He reached the final of every tournament he entered, save for his season opening effort in Doha, and came within one match of potentially winning the Calendar Slam. But for Stan Wawrinka, I'm hard pressed to think of another player who could possibly derail him given all that we've seen the past 12 months. Perhaps a massive server like Karlovic, who beat him in Doha last year, or Kevin Anderson, who stretched Djokovic to five sets at Wimbledon? 1st Round: Hyeon Chung In his quarter: Kei Nishikori In his half: Roger Federer 2. Andy Murray You will likely hear a fair bit about a "Murray Baby Watch" in Melbourne over the course of the fortnight. Murray has said he will withdraw should he get the call during the tournament that his wife has gone into labour. Grand Slams are difficult enough without having such an enormous life change swirling overhead. That said, perhaps the lack of expectation will spur Murray into a spell of the carefree and aggressive tennis that he will need to summon for a title run. 1st Round: Alexander Zverev In his quarter: David Ferrer In his half: Stan Wawrinka/Rafael Nadal 3. Roger Federer Federer is one of two players (Wawrinka) who could realistically pose a threat to Djokovic in Melbourne. However, his uneven performance in his Brisbane final loss to Raonic clouds his readiness for a deep run. Reports from Brisbane also suggested that Federer was dealing with an illness during the tournament. If so, making the final at all was a notable achievement. If close to 100%, Federer is a safe bet to make the 39th Slam semifinal of his career. 1st Round: Nikoloz Basilashvili In his quarter: Tomas Berdych In his half: Novak Djokovic Watch: A visibly displeased Federer drops his racquet during Brisbane final defeat to Milos Raonic. 4. Stan Wawrinka Is Stan the main threat to the world #1? Djokovic won 14 consecutive meetings between 2007 and the 2014 Australian Open, and so it almost doesn't seem plausible that someone who owns a paltry 4-21 career record against Djokovic could be considered his biggest hindrance. However, Wawrinka has been the player to challenge Djokovic most on the biggest stages in the last three years. After pushing Djokovic to five sets at the 2013 Australian and U.S. Opens, Wawrinka beat him at the 2014 Australian and famously denied Djokovic the coveted career Slam in the 2015 French Open final. The bottom line here is that -- when it matters most -- Wawrinka has been able to push Djokovic in ways other players simply haven't. 1st Round: Dmitry Tursunov In his quarter: Rafael Nadal In his half: Andy Murray 5. Rafael Nadal The realistic goal for Nadal is to escape Djokovic in the quarterfinals and play as deep as he can into the Melbourne fortnight. Given the lopsided nature of Nadal's results against Djokovic in the last 12 months, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which the Spaniard could get the better of the Serb in a best-of-5 match on a hard court. This prognosis is exacerbated by the 6-1 6-2 drubbing Nadal received from Djokovic in the Doha final to start the season. That said, his results have been trending upward since last year's U.S. Open; if he manages to avoid the world #1, a second Nadal title in Melbourne is not out of the question. 1st Round: Fernando Verdasco In his quarter: Stan Wawrinka In his half: Andy Murray 6. Tomas Berdych To the dismay of some and delight of many, Berdych arrives in Melbourne with a new clothing sponsor. He's traded the non-traditional designs of H&M -- which he sported the last few seasons -- for more traditional fare with a new sponsorship deal with Adidas. The good news for Berdych is that the Australian is easily his best Slam as far as results go: he's reached at least the quarterfinals in each of his last five and gone a round further in his last two. The bad news? He's 30 now, and owns a meagre 8-37 career record vs Djokovic and Federer, who are both in his half of the draw. 1st Round: Yuki Bhambri In his quarter: Roger Federer In his half: Novak Djokovic 7. Kei Nishikori Nishikori was pegged as a breakout candidate last year after his run to the 2014 U.S. Open final. He managed a solid season, winning three titles. Still, injuries continue to prevent Nishikori from elevating his game over the course of a full season. He's made one final and a further three quarterfinals at Slams, a paltry return for someone of his talents. Nishikori enters the Australian Open with a 1-1 record on the year, having lost in the Brisbane quarterfinals to Bernard Tomic. The next two years will go a long way toward determining whether Nishikori will end up labelled an "underachiever" by the time he calls it quits. 1st Round: Philipp Kohlschreiber In his quarter: Novak Djokovic In his half: Roger Federer 8. David Ferrer Between 2012 and 2014, Ferrer was a pillar of consistency at the majors, reaching 10 consecutive quarterfinals. He's since made only one from his last six appearances. Still, his five singles titles in 2015 were good for third on tour, even as he missed most of the summer with an elbow injury. The window on Ferrer's chances for a Slam win has likely closed, but at 33, he should still be able to challenge for a 17th quarterfinal berth. 1st Round: Qualifier In his quarter: Andy Murray In his half: Stan Wawrinka/Rafael Nadal 9. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 10. John Isner 11. Kevin Anderson 12. Marin Cilic 13. Milos Raonic 14. Gilles Simon 15. David Goffin 16. Bernard Tomic Player To Watch:
Women's Seeds 1. Serena Williams In spite of what happened in Flushing last September, everything we've seen from Serena Williams over her career suggests that to bet against her is foolish and futile. I know it's a cliche at this point, but Serena's track record suggests she can play her way into winning form more quickly than others. A bothersome knee has restricted her preparation for the Australian Open; she was forced to retire from one match at the Hopman Cup and withdraw from another. Still, she will have the benefit of several days of practice at Melbourne Park before the tournament commences. The tennis gods have cooperated in placing Venus in the bottom half of the draw, but a potential quarterfinal with Sharapova awaits. 1st Round: Camila Giorgi In her quarter: Maria Sharapova In her half: Aga Radwanska 2. Simona Halep Simona Halep has reached the quarterfinals or better at five of the last eight Slams, including a near-miss three-set tussle with Maria Sharapova in the 2014 French Open final. Her status as most likely to break through and win a first major is well earned. Now working full-time with Darren Cahill, Halep seems eager to climb the Slam mountain. However, an Achilles injury has hindered her preparation for Melbourne; she had to withdraw from the Brisbane International and struggled again with the Achilles inflammation during her opening match against Caroline Garcia in Sydney. She says doctors have given her the okay to play through the discomfort and, as of this writing, she is set to play Svetlana Kuznetsova in the Sydney semifinals. 1st Round: Qualifier In her quarter: Venus Williams In her half: Garbiñe Muguruza Watch: Halep's press conference after her 2nd round Sydney win versus Caroline Garcia. Halep addresses the Achilles inflammation that she's been dealing with. 3. Garbiñe Muguruza Muguruza arrives in Melbourne after a breathrough 2015 campaign which included her first Slam final appearance at Wimbledon. She, like most others in the top 10, also carries injury concerns; Muguruza retired in her second round match at Brisbane with plantar fasciitis. Of all the next generation players, Muguruza has the confidence to match a top-notch skill set required to reach number one someday. The world #3 also had the misfortune of drawing popular darkhorse and Brisbane champion, Victoria Azarenka, in her round of 16. 1st Round: Anett Kontaveit In her quarter: Angelique Kerber In her half: Simona Halep 4. Agnieszka Radwanksa The so-called ninja is the hottest player on the WTA Tour, having won four tournaments since the U.S. Open: Tokyo, Tianjin, Singapore, and Shenzhen. After a disastrous first half of 2015, Radwanska managed a semifinal at Wimbledon before going on a tear to finish the season. Her struggles under the tutelage of Martina Navratilova are behind her, and she will begin this tournament with her own quarter, as the #4 seed. Given the uncertainty swirling around the other top names, Radwanska arrives in Melbourne with the surest footing, and potentially a first Slam title within her grasp. 1st Round: Christina McHale In her quarter: Petra Kvitova In her half: Serena Williams 5. Maria Sharapova The most action we've seen from Sharapova in the lead-up to the Australian Open has come via her Twitter account. After a curtailed 2015 season -- with a pretty good WTA Finals appearance thrown in -- Sharapova withdrew from her only tune-up with a left forearm injury. There's simply no way to gauge her fitness right now. When healthy, she's the best hardcourt player aside from Serena, and typically swings for the fences in Australia. 1st Round: Nao Hibino In her quarter: Serena Williams In her half: Aga Radwanska 6. Petra Kvitova The sweltering heat in Australia has never suited Kvitova; in seven main draw appearances, she's advanced beyond the third round only twice ('11, '12). Throw in her lack of match play this year due to a viral illness, on top of her struggles returning from mono last year, and a deep run seems even more unlikely. Kvitova's trump card has always been a Serena-esque ability to find a streak of lights out tennis. She will need to tap into that if she is to reverse her career trajectory in Melbourne. 1st Round: Qualifier In her quarter: Aga Radwanska In her half: Serena Williams 7. Angelique Kerber Kerber is poised to have a big 2016. Save for Serena Williams' five titles, nobody won more tournaments than her four in 2015. She continued in a similar vein to start 2016 with a run to the Brisbane final, before falling to a resurgent Victoria Azarenka. Kerber has never advanced beyond the round of 16 in Melbourne, and has only four Slam quarterfinal results to her name. But, at 27, she seems primed for the biggest year of her career, and is without question one to watch at this year's event. 1st Round: Misaki Doi In her quarter: Garbiñe Muguruza In her half: Simona Halep 8. Venus Williams With temperatures in Melbourne having already reached in excess of 40 degrees Celsius, conditions may prove a big hindrance to Williams' chances. A quarterfinalist from a year ago, Williams may feel extra pressure to defend her points, since a spot on the U.S. Olympic team is her stated goal for the year. After starting 2015 with a title run in Auckland, Williams had a disastrous defence two weeks ago, littering centre court with over 70 errors in an opening loss to Daria Kasatkina. Still, Williams has shown she still has the desire and ability to make a deep run. 1st Round: Johanna Konta In her quarter: Simona Halep In her half: Garbiñe Muguruza 9. Carla Suarez Navarro 10. Karolina Pliskova 11. Timea Bacsinszky 12. Belinda Bencic 13. Roberta Vinci 14. Victoria Azarenka 15. Madison Keys 16. Caroline Wozniacki Players To Watch:
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